Whatever the results of the November elections for seats in the Texas Legislature, the state financial outlook will be robust compared to previous Sessions. House and Senate budget writers will use the latest estimate of projected revenues for the next biennium (2016-17) from the Comptroller of Public Accounts during the Regular Session, which convenes in January. "Available revenue" is a strong predictor of appropriations, absent tax cuts or shifts in policy priorities. One wild card to watch closely is pending litigation over public school funding.
Many observers credit the booming oil and gas industry with driving the healthy economy in Texas, plus an overall—albeit slow—recovery nationwide from the disastrous recession that began in 2008.
The revenue picture is certainly good news for community and technical colleges, but many schools have reported enrollment declines, which some observers attribute to a plethora of job opportunities in the energy industry for high school graduates. As community college leaders know, two-year schools often experience soft enrollments during periods of low unemployment—an unfortunate circumstance since funding from the Legislature is driven largely by contact hours.
Another development to follow closely is the projected implementation of outcomes-based funding for community colleges, based on Student Success Points. These benchmarks of student achievement will determine ten percent of appropriations for instruction, as stipulated by a law passed in 2013. Rider #23 in the General Appropriations Act (SB 1) requires a new methodology for success points allocation be developed for the 2016-17 biennium “that compares the performance of the college district to itself” (SB1, p. III-200). Here is a link for more information. Presumably, therefore, colleges will not compete against other schools (which obviously may have different challenges) for revenue.
Subsequent posts will deal with other important topics related to the forthcoming Regular Session.
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